Brisbane fuel price cycle

These figures are the daily median of Brisbane regular unleaded from 3 December 2018 to 31 August 2026 (2,751 days). The median stands in for a typical bowser. It is not the price at every station, and it is not a bowser price now.

There is no observation from 13 January 2023 to 31 March 2023 (78 days). A missing stretch is not counted as a cycle.

A sharp rise is counted when the median climbs at least 10 cents a litre within 14 days of a low. That is the restoration rule in the cycle model.

Middle gap between sharp rises

35 days, which is five weeks

Half of the measured gaps

30 to 44.5 days

Middle fall, high to low

39.8 cents a litre

Middle one-day jump

30.8 cents a litre

Weekday averages, dearest to cheapest

0.9 cents a litre

The shortest of those 69 gaps was 14 days and the longest was 91 days. The length moves. It is not a date you can circle a fortnight ahead.

From the high of a cycle to the following low, the middle fall took 28 days. The middle pace of those falls was about 1.3 cents a litre a day. In the middle cycle, 10 days were within 3 cents a litre of that low, including days still on the way down. The next sharp rise is the end of the cheap part.

On the bowser, that looks like a board that has been easing for a few weeks, then sitting still. The dear part is the jump that follows. In this file the middle of those one-day jumps was 30.8 cents a litre. Filling in the flat trough, before that jump, is the cheap part of the historical pattern. Filling in the days just after the jump is the dear part. Weekday averages differed by 0.9 cents a litre, so there is no cheapest day of the week to wait for.

That is a reading of prices up to 31 August 2026. It is not an instruction for a later day, and it is not the FuelVerdict verdict.

Stations do not all lift on the same morning. One station can still be on the old board while another nearby has already jumped, and each brand sets its own price. The citywide median is not your suburb.

Compare before you fill. The Brisbane suburb pages list historical unleaded. They are stored records, not the price on the bowser now. This page does not quote a typical gap between suburbs, because the daily file used here is citywide.

• Compare the unleaded price before you fill, including a station you already pass. A long detour for a small gap can cost more than the gap saves. The method page describes that estimate. It uses straight-line distance from the suburb centre, not a routed drive.
• If you can choose the day, use the trough and avoid the days just after a sharp rise. There is no cheapest weekday to aim for.
• These pages publish unleaded only. If the car manual allows regular unleaded, a higher grade is extra money. If the manual requires a higher grade, do not put unleaded in the tank, and do not assume this unleaded cycle matches that grade.

The verdict card is designed to answer with one of three words, and only after a held-out back-test reaches at least 70% on every Brisbane series it scores. That bar is not cleared. The card says CALIBRATING. It will not tell you to fill or to wait.

FILL NOW is the word for a trough, YOUR CALL for the middle, and HOLD OFF for a high. Those words stay off the price pages while the bar is shut. The method page sets out the gauge and the back-test. The price file behind this page is credited on the data sources page.

• The newest day in the series is 31 August 2026. Nothing here is a bowser price for a later day.
• A station that moved earlier or later than the pack does not show in the median.
• A refinery problem, a public holiday, or a move in the wholesale price can stretch or skip the pattern. That is general guidance, not a count from the file.
• The 35-day middle is a description of past gaps. It is not a date the next low will fall on.